Mobility and Increase in Confirmed COVID-19 Cases: Econometric Relationship in the Mexican States

Abstract

The objective of this document is to quantify the relationship between mobility and COVID-19 infections for the states of Mexico. To achieve this, we consider the change in the number of infected individuals between April 12th and May 12th in Mexican states based on the initial number of confirmed cases and the mobility index weighted by the state's vehicle fleet. The relevance of this lies in the end of the Healthy Distance Program on May 30th, which may lead to consequences in the increase of infections and, consequently, the number of deaths. Secondly, we propose how to finance a period of strict isolation and an increase in public spending once such measures conclude, through a credit to be covered later with resources from the Bank of Mexico's surpluses.