Projection of temperature behavior for the period 2020–2100 in the Zulia River Basin in the municipalities of Pamplona, Pamplonita, Cúcuta, El Zulia and Salazar, Norte de Santander – Colombia

Abstract

Climate change, although a natural process, has been accelerated by human activity, primarily due to greenhouse gas emissions linked to development, population growth, and consumption patterns. Anthropogenic influence has caused significant alterations in the climate over the past 25 years, which cannot be attributed solely to natural variability. In Colombia, the IDEAM has reported an increase in average temperature of 0.13 °C per decade 1971-2000, with Norte de Santander among the most affected departments. Projections estimate temperature increases of up to 4 °C by the end of the 21st century. This region faces institutional and community-level challenges in addressing the impacts of rising temperatures, compounded by limited access to hydroclimatic information. As General Circulation Models GCMs lack the spatial resolution needed for local planning, downscaling techniques are essential to derive site-specific climate scenarios. This study aims to generate temperature projections for the Zulia River basin using spatial downscaling methods to detect climate change and variability signals, providing a foundation for developing effective mitigation and adaptation strategies.