From Coca to Cocoa and from Cocoa to Uncertainty: A Longitudinal Analysis of Crop Substitution and Land Tenure Challenges in the Colombian Catatumbo Region (2022-2025)

Abstract

In the context of record-high coca cultivation in Colombia (230,000 hectares in 2022), this article analyzes the viability and scalability of Alternative Development (AD) programs through a longitudinal case study (2022-2025) in the hamlet of Banco de Arena, Cúcuta, a region with persistently high levels of illicit crops in the Catatumbo area. A mixed-methods design is employed, triangulating data from two socio-economic baseline surveys, a market feasibility analysis, project monitoring reports, and national crop monitoring data. The analysis compares two successive interventions: 1) The pilot project in the Vereda El Veinticinco (N=25 families), which demonstrated notable success by substituting 52 hectares of coca with legal crops and establishing a producers' association (Asocac25). This success was based on a viable market strategy and the selection of beneficiaries who, although informal, had possession of the land. 2) The replication phase in the Vereda La Punta (N=31 families), which stalled at its outset. The 2025 baseline survey revealed that 68% of the new beneficiaries (21 of 31) did not have a plot of land to implement the project. This study concludes that the scalability of AD models based on agrarian substitution is not primarily limited by the feasibility of the legal market, but by the structural barrier of land tenure. The analysis distinguishes between informal possession (a manageable challenge) and landlessness (a fundamental impediment), arguing that AD must evolve towards non-agrarian strategies for the growing rural proletariat in coca-growing areas