Behavior of temperatures on bioregion of Coast Mountain Range, Venezuela

Abstract

Climate change represents one of the greatest environmental threats faced worldwide, because it is causing serious economic, human and biodiversity losses. It is a consequence of global warming; The average temperature of the planet has increased by approximately 1.2 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels. However, the poorest countries, which are not prepared to face rapid climate changes, will suffer the worst consequences. In Venezuela, climate models show an increase in temperature in the coming decades in the order of 0.5 to 3.5 ºC. Due to the worrying consequences that climate change implies at a global level and particularly for Venezuela, it was decided to evaluate the influence of climate change on the behavior of temperatures in the Bioregion of the Cordillera de la Costa, since important areas are located in that area. cities in the center of the country and the capital where industrial and agricultural activities are carried out. It also has 6 national parks. The meteorological data used was based on the information provided by the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMEH), complemented by the Venezuelan Air Force (FAV) and the DANAC Foundation. Although only 5 meteorological stations, out of 21 stations located in the bioregion, had 30 years of continuous record, due to serious record deficiencies or inoperability. Descriptive and inferential statistical analyzes were applied to the historical series, finding that they are seasonal series whose behavior required the application of auto correlations and ARIMA models, validated by the Ljung-Box test based on the portmanteau test and that of Mann Kendall. It was possible to show that temperatures show an increasing trend, both from the maximum and the minimum, but not in a decisive way and in different degrees of magnitude.