Análisis de la volatilidad económica en Copa Holdings (2015-2026) ante la presencia de la pandemia: Un enfoque mediante modelos GARCH y pruebas de Granger
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24054/face.v26i2.4602Palabras clave:
aerolínea , COVID-19, economía, impacto, riesgoResumen
Este estudio tiene como objetivo evaluar el efecto en el precio de las acciones de la compañía aérea Copa Holdings en el contexto de la presencia del Covid-19. La investigación aborda un análisis de serie de tiempo, el cual resulta relevante debido a la naturaleza de la volatilidad bursátil. Metodológicamente, se empleó un enfoque cuantitativo, utilizando el modelo de GARCH con análisis de causalidad de Granger como método principal. La muestra estuvo conformada por 2812 registros. El análisis se basó en los modelos citados. Los resultados indican que la pandemia actuó como un impacto estructural que disparó la volatilidad GARCH por encima de niveles históricos, alterando el precio de la acción hacia un estado de caos predecible. Este periodo se caracterizó por una persistencia extrema del riesgo y una reversión violenta de precios. La principal contribución del estudio radica en sentar las bases para desarrollar modelos de alerta temprana basados en entropía que anticipen colapsos en el sector aeronáutico ante eventos de cisne negro.
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Derechos de autor 2026 Fernando Restrepo Betancur- Luis Miguel Mejía Giraldo
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.
